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Apakah akan terjadi resesi? Apakah terjadinya bank run menjadi indikasi bahwa ekonomi barat sedang terancam? Apa yang harus kita lakukan? Bagaimana dengan inflasi tinggi?

Source: Investopedia

Setelah sekian lama tidak mendengar kabar darinya, investor legendaris Peter Lynch akhirnya memberi tanggapan mengenai keadaan ekonomi saat ini di CNBC beberapa hari yang lalu.

"400 [banks] went under after 2008/2009. Now, we have a stress test. I think the banking system has improved. There'll be some companies that go under. That's the nature of it. It's nothing like (imagine) 1980-1981. We had double-digit inflation, double-digit unemployment, and people worried the Japanese were going to take over the world. I mean, we were hopeless. There's always something to worry about. In my over 50 years of [investing], I think I'd be worried if there was somebody who didn't bring up something to worry about. That's the nature of business...

We've had 13 recessions since World War Two, and we've had 13 recoveries. Maybe we're going to have [a recession/recovery]. If this is a recession, it's probably the most predictable one ever. I'd love to know the future - I would be a better investor. I'd pay five extra dollars for next year's Wall Street Journal. It would really help. I cannot predict the future. But this recession is so expected, so predicted, maybe it's coming... I don't know."

Mungkin tiga kata terpenting disampaikan pada kalimat terakhir, yaitu "I don't know". Seperti yang pernah ditulis di blog berjudul "Kapan Inflasi Turun? Resesi di Tahun 2023?", tidak ada seorang pun yang dapat memprediksi apa yang akan terjadi. Namun, itu tidak menjadi alasan bagi Peter Lynch untuk berhenti berinvestasi.

"I think looking for something different, looking for something that's a good story... So, you have to find a company that's either a turnaround or a company that is going to grow... You have to be looking for new companies and look at the balance sheet... Look for a company that's going to do well in the next few years, five years. Look at their balance sheet or look at a turnaround. When companies go from crappy to semi-crappy, the stock goes up. When it goes from semi-crappy to good, they go up. When businesses get to be terrific, get out."

Tidak cukup berinvestasi di perusahaan yang berprospek. Carilah perusahaan dengan model bisnis yang baik, dan (ini penting) pelajari balance sheet-nya, alias laporan keuangan.

'Nuff said.

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